4 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993. Interestingly, the “experts” struggled to perform better than “dart-throwing chimps,” and were consistently less accurate…